Something about the 79 mph curve originally reported yesterday did not sound right. The Seattle Times is now reporting the curve was rated for 30 mph and the train took it at 80 mph. We will find out more once the accident re-constructionists look at the evidence.
Instapundit: So how was a train traveling 80 mph on a 30 mph curve?
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Buzzfeed: Brakes applies six seconds before crash?
Hot Air: The more we know the stranger it gets
Buzzfeed: Brakes applies six seconds before crash?
Hot Air: The more we know the stranger it gets
The NTSB is on the scene by now. They have a rule that I personally like, which is they don't determine the cause of an accident like this until the anniversary of the event. They do this to make sure they don't prejudice any findings, and to be sure they have completely worked through all the items that lead up to the event.
ReplyDeleteI also think this is the type of thing that needs at least 24-48 hours to let initial emotion pass.
But I'm far enough away, and don't care too much about rail travel; and I can look at a map. Yeah, it sounds like the conductor was operating at too fast a speed for the curve. It likely jumped the track, and the bridge railing pushed the cars to side or the other. It's not just Occum's rule here to make this determination, but seriously, this is the inaugural run. It makes far more sense that the conductor was less knowledgeable of the route and made a mistake, than it is that ISIS was aware of such a rail service and enacted sabotage that was perfectly timed to affect the passenger service on this part of the rail line. On the other side of the spectrum, it seems Trump was too quick to jump on infrastructure (don't blame him, Obama did the same each and every time), as the rail line was recently reviewed and modernized for the passenger service, so it is not outdated infrastructure.
Excessive speed makes the most sense.
I suppose you could bank the rails for 80 mph but then if you took it too slow it would probably tip over on the inside of the curve. I'm in no way an engineer so that's just an armchair guess.
ReplyDeleteOne of the many problems with high speed rail in the US is that to tilt track, as Dad Bones suggests, you need your own track. That means your own right of way, maintenance, and other stuff. And Dad Bones is right, slower trains can't use the track if it designed for high speed. What has been done in other countries to allow higher speed on regular tracks is to tilt the train.
ReplyDelete