The Russians controlled the Kakhova Dam but who benefits most from it being breached?
One argument for Ukraine is gradual draining of the reservoir is better than a sudden flood during their offensive.
Stalin once breached a dam in Ukraine (at a tremendous loss of Ukrainian lives) to thwart the Nazi advance. Better for Ukraine to do this now than to let the Russians do this to them later. Alternatively, the Russians did it now in an attempt to stop the Ukraine counter-offensive.
Russian defense positions have been flooded by the recent breach. Russian troops have been swept away.
Instapundit: ISW: June 7, 2023: Russian Campaign Assessment and Ukraine to get what?
BBC: Theories on the dam breach in Ukraine
Powerline: Breakthrough near in Ukraine?
AoSHQ: Morning Report 06.09.23
Russia controlled the dam, and it was known that Russia had loaded the turbine room with explosives when it leaked from a drunk Russian troops bragging about it. there were also text messages intercepted. Given that Russia controlled the dam, and had loaded explosive in the dam, only Russia could have blown the dam as they were the only one with means and opportunity.
ReplyDeleteI will grant that the explosives were set off accidentally, but doubt it. The time of day they were detonated would have been ideal to surprise those downstream and increase the loss of life as a result of the flood.
Motive was also entirely on Russia. By blowing the dam, it destroyed the opportunity for the southern thrust of Ukraine to be coordinated with the more northern thrust in Zaporizhia. The southern thrust can not go until at least a month from now, probably two.