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Most cases Taiwan prevail (but not always) and the cost on both sides is huge
There are a lot of "ifs." Biggest one is whether the USA and Japan help defend Taiwan. Xi has said two things recently: China is reserving the use of force to take Taiwan and that this issue will not go to another generation. We need to take that threat seriously.
As far as US interests over Taiwan--a hostile China taking over Taiwan would be a seismic shift in the region. Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines would all be at risk. I doubt a China willing to risk the losses needed to take Taiwan would be very benevolent in that new strategic position if it prevailed.
The best way to win is not fight in the first place. Russia's lack of success in Ukraine must give China pause (invading Ukraine is arguably easier than an amphibious invasion of Taiwan). China may figure to wait for US power to further decline before acting.
Taiwan needs to be in a position where China is not willing to risk it. Taiwan needs to up its own defense to make China realize the cost of invasion is just not worth it (win or lose). The long term goal should be China morphing from less than a Xi autocracy/dictatorship and into a modern state like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. At that point, Taiwan and China joining might be welcomed by both sides. That could happen--but I doubt anytime soon (barring an economic collapse of China).
Hot Air: War games show losses of 10,000 men for the USA
Instapundit: NY Post: Herd of sheep walking in a circle in China
"Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines would all be at risk."
ReplyDeleteActually, no they wouldn't be. Taiwan is a totally separate issue. China regards it as sovereign territory, and at some point it will annex it.
The intrusion of the US and Japan into the dispute portends a very large scale war in the Pacific, right up to and including the US mainland. If South Korea jumps in, so will North Korea, and that will go nuclear right quick. Also, there is Russia, and ally of China, with a large Pacific fleet and air force.
The neocons in Washington are trying to undo the Nixon/Mao One China Agreement and to instigation Taiwan's declaration of independence. These are the same people who instigated the Russo-Ukrainian war. The neocon parasites will eventually destroy the US, and then move on to another host.
I concur escallation is a real risk, but the Nixon/Mao Agreement did not include throwing Taiwan to the ChiComs. The best way to forestall an invasion is for Taiwan to be in a position that such an invasion is not worth the risk to China. Taiwan eventually wants reunification too--but on its terms.
DeleteChina could just SAY that they are in charge and biden wouldn't say a word!
ReplyDelete