Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Irma Not In The Mood For This...

Four days later and the storm has almost exactly matched the cone of September 5

This Cat 5 storm is barreling now for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with Key West looking like it might get an eye wall pass later this week.  But while a general idea of track is possible, no specifics are really known right now.  

Hot Air: Worse than Harvey and headed for Florida?

Twitchy: Hurricane Irma now Category 5

Lem's Place: Post Hurricane Self-Help

The Feral Irishman: Flora-Bama

Heavy: Projected Path Irma

TOM: Deviant Canooks

AoSHQ: Bad Storm


  1. A minor thing most people who never seen one of these things might miss. Harvey's wind damage was bad for Corpus Christi, Ingleside, and Rockport, but it wasn't a major problem for Houston (despite spawning many many tornados). Harvey simply didn't have steering currents to move it.

    Irma is moving right along. But that doesn't mean the windward islands will cope very well with 170+ mph winds or the related storm surge. Nor is it good news for Key West. But central Floridians won't see this the same as Harvey, and in some ways, they are right. The better comparison is to Andrew. And Andrew was devastating.

    But the current track shows Irma heading up the Florida straights and into the Gulf of Mexico. Short of it hooking north and going into Alabama and the Florida pan-handle, this will be a knock out blow for Louisiana and SE Texas. Already gas shortages are becoming a real problem in the south. Irma's on track to be in the Gulf of Mexico oil field in 7 days, and messing with what's left of refinery production in 8 days.

    At this rate, they should name the next storm John, as in John Galt, because it might just stop the motor of the world (or at least the US).

    1. Leland, it is not a "minor thing" if you live through it. Yes, Irma is going to be your typical (but dangerous) Hurricane that damages with wind rather than massive flood (although there will undoubtedly be flooding too). Let's hope this storm weakens before it makes landfall in the Gulf (chances of it weakening for the Caribbean and Keys is unfortunately low). I was hoping it would veer north and go off to Europe and miss us completely, but apparently not.

      If it does hit Louisiana and Texas, let's hope it keeps moving fast and does not stall.

      At least wind damage is usually covered by insurance. The bad part for homeowners in Texas is the Harvey damage was mostly not covered by insurance (most people do not have flood insurance and flood insurance mostly sucks anyway and has caps). People have to rebuild homes with FEMA loans.

    2. Hurricanes are unpredictable in damage. You can have neighborhoods completely devastated and others nearby with little damage. No topographical reason for it. I am convinced that Hurricanes spawn tornadoes in them that are chaotic and almost impossible to specifically predict. They are the agents of catastrophic wind damage.

      Building construction matters. Reinforced concrete buildings ride out hurricanes mostly fine. Glass (without shutters or plywood protection) and wood, not so much (although property construction and strapping of wood structures certainly helps). If large objects start flying through the air (like cars, trees, etc.) there isn't a lot you can do to stop them.

    3. Minor thing, err point. As in nuance that's not particularly significant.

    4. Post hurricane sucks if you are in the path of a major one.


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