Monday, November 30, 2015

Nate Silver on Donald Trump's Polls Numbers


This is worth a read (both Trump-o-philes and Trump-o-phobes)

Take all of this with a big grain of salt. Nate Silver can definitely be wrong (he underestimated the Democrats' loss in the 2014 midterms), but he was mostly spot on during the 2012 Obama-Romney election (although predicting a one on one is a lot easier than a primary and nomination at this point, but that cuts both ways). Still, the Iowa Caucus is about two months from now...

EBL: Are forces in the GOP trying to block Trump and is the GOP Establishment freaking out about Trump

Instapundit: Pollsters can get it very wrong and why Trump has not flamed out

Wombat: Conservatives 4 Palin: The MSM sure hates Ben Carson

Seven reasons Trump will win

TOM: Corrupt Hustlers

4 comments:

  1. Silver is a Lefty shill.

    For those who don't buy the idea '12 was an honest count, it's pretty obvious Silver was given the numbers by the Gray Lady for whom he worked and legitimized them, knowing the vote fraud machine would kick in to make it all look brilliant.

    Now he says polls don't matter, but Trump's people have to come out for him to win. Wow, there's an insight!

    If the polls are even in the same galaxy, Trump is somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 to 4 times ahead of anybody else. It would seem to require Cruz and Rubio's people to come out, but that's irrelevant according to Silver.

    Just more FUD.

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    1. I am skeptical of most poll pundits but it is foolish to disregard Silver. As always, YMMV

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    2. Even though he's basically a one hit wonder?

      The only thing that he gets right is The Donald has no organization, something I noticed all along.

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    3. Silver is hardly flawless, but he is more than a one hit number. But the point is how does Trump manage to get to 51% of the general electorate. Granted head to heads show Hillary losing to most GOP candidates--but Hillary edges Trump at RCP polls. I am not saying I agree Trump has little chance (he is the GOP frontrunner right now)--but I see the challenge that Trump is facing in the general election. It is a similar challenge that Ted Cruz will face going forward. They have a highly hostile MSM trying to paint them as monsters. There are a substantial number of Establishment RINOs who will vote Hillary over either of them. That is a tough two front war, but between Cruz and Trump I think Cruz has the better shot.

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