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Meanwhile Japan is working towards mining methane hydrate. I am not suggesting this mining will trigger a Permian-like methane eruption, but there is a tremendous amount of methane hydrate under the ocean. And many global warming alarmists say a small increase of temperatures could trigger a chain reaction of this methane being released from the deep ocean and arctic permafrost. Then again, it was not men who triggered the Permian release. It can just happen.
Remember when we were facing peak oil?
The fear of uncontrolled methane release reminds me of fears of uncontrolled nuclear reaction (setting the skies on fire) in the early days of fission and radioactivity. Some of this is documented in Fredrick Soddy's book, "The Interpretation Of Radium" (1909) and elsewhere. They were unfounded.
ReplyDeleteUndersea methane is thermodynamically unstable with respect to release to the atmosphere but heat is needed to overcome its entrapment. Heat transfer is relatively slow. Uncontrolled release would need uncontrolled heat (unlikely) or the introduction of another molecular "guest" to displace the methane.
The theory is if the methane hydrate is released, it is such a powerful greenhouse gas (72 times more impact than CO2), that it will start a chain reaction temperature increase. But that would would take far more than incremental warming from manmade activities or mining. The Permian event was likely triggered my massive seismic volcanic forces or astroid impact.
DeleteThe oceans are giant heat trap. The seas have not dramatically warmed (either at the surface or at depth). Over the last century, the planet has warmed 0.18 of one degree at the ocean surface, no real warming at all at depth, and 1 degree in the atmosphere.
The fear is something to pay attention to, but hardly to panic over.