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Thursday, November 1, 2012

Nate Silver and 538 Blog doubles down again: Chance of Barack Obama being reelected are now 79%?

The latest from Nate Silver (as of November 1).  He has Obama's reelection chances at 79%.  Michael Barone, who is pretty sober on this stuff and no slouch on polls and data does not see it that way.  Someone has to be very wrong about these predictions.
Nate Silver:  Genius or Charlatan?
Even with good data coming in regarding Romney and indie voters, I am not taking anything for granted.  Legal Insurrection has it correct in warning us that the Democrats are trying to depress Republican/Conservative turn out.  Don't let them.  Do your best, fight till the end, and if you are a conservative and supporting Romney/Ryan, go vote if you have not done so already.

Prior EBL posts:
Sign of coming storm...
Separated at Birth:  Nate Silver and...?
Nate Silver has more confidence than David Axelrod...

Andrew Sullivan is taking too much medicine again!
More date from The Campaign Spot...
Under the Fedora:  What he is seeing...
Is Nate Silver's Value at Risk?


  1. It sort of scares me. After all, he is placing his reputation on the line. It makes me wonder what the Chicago thugs are up to.

    1. We have to make sure we win by enough that they cannot steal it.


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