Sunday, September 2, 2012

What was the effect of the Republican National Convention on Florida voters who watched? Hint: Mitt Romney had a very good convention.

As you can guess, most Florida voters already had made up their mind before viewing the Republican National  Convention.  But of those critical undecided voters in Florida, here is the breakdown of how they are breaking according to SurveyUSA:  
Two-thirds of those who watched Thursday night's speeches at the Republican National Convention already had decided who they would vote for before anyone opened their mouth, but among the small but important group of persuadable speech watchers, there is 2:1 movement towards Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll of the state of Florida conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. 
1,211 adults were interviewed statewide 08/31/12, after Romney, Florida's Marco Rubio and Clint Eastwood spoke to the convention 08/30/12. Of the adults, 1,100 were registered to vote in Florida. Of the registered voters, 754 heard the convention speeches. Of the convention speech watchers:
* 66% did not change their mind.
* 16% switched from "undecided" to Romney.
* 6% switched from Obama to Romney.
* Adding those 2 together, that's 22% who switched TO Romney.
* 10% switched from "undecided" to Obama.
* 2% switched from Romney to Obama.
* Adding those 2 together, that's 12% who switched TO Obama.
* Comparing the 2 aggregate numbers: 22% switched TO Romney, 12% switched TO Obama.  [added emphasis]
Caution: As expected, those who watched the speeches at the Republican National Convention were disproportionately Republican. This poll does not attempt to measure how all likely voters in the state of Florida would vote if filling out a ballot today. It attempts to measure early movement among speech-watchers only. 
Reaction to individual speeches broke along party lines:
* 79% of Republicans, compared to 35% of Democrats, said Romney's speech helped his chances to be elected.
* 12% of Republicans, compared to 45% of Democrats, said Eastwood's speech hurt Romney's changes to be elected.
Mitt Romney definitely gained voters.  A 10% net for Romney if you look at the 22% who switched to Romney vs. the 12% switching to Obama.  Granted this is limited to those who saw the convention (and that is obviously self selecting) but Romney did well with independents and even with some liberals who tuned in.  Wow, even with that the coveted Charlie Crist endorsement given to Barack Obama, Romney did well.  Other than this SurveyUSA poll, there have been no major polls published since the end of the Republican Convention. Obviously that is something to watch for.

Last night I saw upon the stair
A little man who wasn’t there
He wasn’t there again today
Oh, how I wish he’d go away
That same poll shows Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio's speeches more effective than Clint Eastwood's, but it shows that Clint Eastwood's speech was still effective.  Leftist propaganda and spin to the contrary, Florida voters who saw Clint Eastwood speak broke roughly 2:1 in viewing the speech positively:

h/t: Bluegrass Pundit 

Hot Air is noting this too.
Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll  (On September 2, 2012, Romney improved +6 after RNC).  

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