Saturday, January 21, 2012

Mitt Lost South Carolina over Mormonism?

Columbia, South Carolina LDS Temple
I would like to see the data on this claim that Mitt lost South Carolina over him being a Mormon.   
I find it hard to believe that South Carolina picked between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney over their respective faiths.  
I don't disagree that Evangelicals are a critical component of the GOP base but the article goes on to state: "If [Evangelicals] stay home, Republicans lose, like they did when they nominated the moderate John McCain." Any data that Evangelicals staying home cost McCain the election in 2008?  So under that theory only Mike Huckabee could have won in 2008?

Prior Posts:


  1. Here you go:

    "Believe it or not (and I didn’t think it possible), Mormonism was one reason Romney lost South Carolina. Exit polls show that most South Carolina voters wanted a candidate that shared similar religious views. Romney lost big among those voters. Note, I am not describing what ought to be, but rather what the data show is happening."

    And actual stats:

    How much does it matter to you that a candidate shares your religious beliefs?

    60% said "a great deal" or "somewhat". Of those, 49% voted for Newt, 17% for Romney. That seems pretty significant.

    1. I am not buying it because Mitt did twice as good with Evangelicals as he did in 2008 in South Carolina. Oh it may be a factor with some voters, but that alone does not that 14 point margin. Mitt's swing of being well ahead in South Carolina to losing as he did about two weeks later was not due voters feeling a religious bonding with Newt Gingrich (a guy who quit being Baptist for Roman Catholic because his third wife is of that faith?). If that were true, why didn't they flock to Santorum? He is more sincere about his faith. South Carolina is also a state that elected a Sikh as governor.

  2. I would say that Sikhism is a respected religion. For many, including me, Mormonism is a weird cult about on the level of Scientology. Santorum isn't seen as being able to win. You may not _like_ that analysis or fact, but I believe it why Romney didn't win a single Southern state in '08, and is unlikely to win any this time. Many religious Southerners see Mormonism as anti-Christian. Sikhism doesn't deny the divinity of Jesus Christ, after all (nor teach that it's adherents will become gods with their own planets to rule, after death, among other crack-pot tenets).

    1. I respect LDS members, even if I do not share their beliefs. I disagree with you on this. I am sure some people feel the same as you and will never vote for a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, but I do not believe that those numbers are so high in the South (or anywhere in the United States) that a Mormon could never win. So when Mitt was high in the polls a couple of weeks ago, that was because people in South Carolina did not realize he was a Mormon then? But thank you for your comment.


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