The key takeaway is that overvalued financial markets are not sustainable and must eventually experience a correction that returns them back to their fundamental value. In a free market (unlike what we have now), stock valuations move in waves, alternating from undervaluation to fair valuation to overvaluation, and back again. The Federal Reserve, by trying to keep the bubble constantly inflated, has distorted this natural process. Regardless, U.S. stocks will come back to earth when the Fed finally loses control of the situation, and the final comedown will be far more painful than would occur in a free market.How The Stock Bubble Will End
I believe that the longer-term U.S. stock bubble will end when the very fuel behind it is removed, which is record low interest rates. As I discussed in my last stock bubble report, I foresee two ways that rates will rise and pop the stock bubble:
Scenario #1: After several more years of the Bubblecovery or bubble-driven economic recovery, the Federal Reserve has a “Mission Accomplished” moment and eventually increases the Fed Funds rate too high, creating a hard landing that pops the post-2009 bubbles that were created by stimulative monetary conditions in the first place. Rising interest rates are what ended the 2003-2007 bubble, which led to the Global Financial Crisis.
Scenario #2: The ballooning and unsustainable amount of government and corporate bond market debt eventually causes investors to jettison bonds en masse, which leads to much higher interest rates.
When you're at the game with your side dude and realize you're on TV. https://t.co/tQQn0SRZGX
— dj sourmilk (@djsourmilk) January 2, 2015
2015 started out okay if you are a Duck or Buckeye fan (it was okay for Wisconsin too)…
@poppyco4 Here's what I wrote about Ohio: viralread.com/2012/11/03/ohi… @mseblPrior EBL Post:
— Ali A. Akbar (@ali) November 4, 2012
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| Nate Silver: Genius or Charlatan? |
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| The Architect |
My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.But as a certain individual keeps reminding us: Don't get cocky kid!
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| Gisele: You let him go out of the house looking like Bieber? |
Here's a much simpler explanation, albeit one that Bostonians aren't likely to offer:Update:
Brady is now playing at his actual level of talent. Early in his career, he performed at a higher level because he had the advantage of knowing, at least some of the time, what plays defenses were running against him. In violation of NFL rules, the Patriots had a practice of videotaping the defensive play signals of their opponents, which then allowed them to interpret the signals and predict what defenses would do.
I bet a lot of NFL quarterbacks would post higher QB ratings and look incredibly "clutch" if they knew, prior to the snap, whether the defense was blitzing and what kind of coverage scheme would be used.
Tom Brady is a very good quarterback. But the drop-off in his performance over the last few years, compared to his "amazing" performances prior to the Spygate revelation, is predictable, not surprising. Cheating provides a competitive advantage -- who would have guessed?
Cheating-padded stats should also disqualify a player from the discussion of "greatest of all time." Imagine the numbers Montana would have posted if given advance knowledge of defensive play calls. . .
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| 2012 apocalypse watch signs? |
